Counting the Seconds: Tokyo Prepares for a Handshake in Shenzhen

Summit diplomacy is usually about agreements. This month, for Japan, it may come down to a handshake. When Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi lands in Shenzhen for the APEC leaders’ meeting on 18–19 November, it will be her first encounter with Xi Jinping since a row over Taiwan froze relations. Japanese officials, according to Bloomberg’s reporting, have asked Beijing for assurances that Xi will treat her like any other leader — a customary greeting, standard protocol — and say they will protest anything unusual.

The background is a remark Takaichi made last November, that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could pose an “existential” threat to Japan. Beijing’s response included curbs on rare-earth exports, advice to its citizens not to travel to Japan and limits on Japanese seafood. Reports say Xi personally asked for a retraction; Takaichi has refused and continued to push her security agenda. Ties are now at one of their lowest points since normalisation in 1972.

The worry is about optics. Analysts quoted by Bloomberg point to seating plans and group photographs as places where a host can signal displeasure without saying a word, and they recall how Xi publicly scolded Canada’s then-prime minister at a G20 meeting in 2022. Japanese planners also note a contrast with 2014, the last time China hosted APEC: Xi shook Shinzo Abe’s hand then, but months of quiet groundwork had come first. This time, officials say, no such channel has been used. Komeito, the party that once served as a bridge to Beijing, has left the governing coalition.

Realistic expectations are modest. A formal Xi–Takaichi meeting is considered unlikely, and contact is expected at ceremonial moments such as the host’s leaders’ dinner. The summit will also be crowded with bigger headlines, including a possible Trump–Xi–Putin encounter on the sidelines.

For Takaichi, the dilemma is double-edged. A warm greeting would calm markets and businesses hit by the dispute; a cold one could deepen her isolation. Either way, a few seconds of body language in Shenzhen will be read as a verdict on a year of diplomacy.